安联（Allianz）：2026-2027年全球经济展望报告：逼近极限（英文版）（32页）.pdf

1、Economic outlook Allianz Research17 December 20252026-27:Stretching the limitsAllianz Research2Allianz ResearchContent Page 3-4 Executive SummaryPage 10-12Inflation and central banks:divergence aheadPage 13-14 Developed markets:running on two speeds Page 5-9 Global outlook:Exceeding previous expecta

2、tions but downside risks remain Page 15-16 Emerging markets:selectivity after a year of rallyPage 20-28Capital markets outlook:Resilience despite late-cycle conditionsPage 17-19 Corporates:Earnings to continue to grow amid fragmentation and capex divergence 17 December 2025 Global GDP growth remains

3、 strong.for now.It is expected to reach+2.9%in 2026 and+2.8%in 2027,following a robust+3%in 2025.Carryover growth from a strong 2025 in the US and China,as well as sustained momentum in the face of disruptions,account for over two-thirds of the upward revision compared to last quarter.The US economy

4、 is increasingly running on two speeds.The impact of the trade war has been milder,at just-0.6pp in 2025 vs-1.6pp estimated in Q2.This improvement is due to reduced tariffs(to 11%effective from 27%announced on 2 April)through sector exclusions and strategic trade deals with key partners.Additionally

5、,the information and communication sector,including AI,has fueled more than half of US GDP growth in 2025,contributing a substantial+1.1pp,and this trend is expected to continue in 2026.We have revised on the upside our forecast for 2026 to+2.5%on the back of a more resilient consumer,a higher credi

6、t impulse and the positive impact of AI.Chinas export growth remains the front-runner despite the trade war!Growth has exceeded expectations,buoyed by stronger-than-anticipated external demand(and soft imports).This surge was driven by frontloading from the US in the first half of the year,strategic