埃森哲：2026年全球经济展望与十大宏观趋势研究报告（英文版）（40页）.pdf

1、Macro ForesightYear end Macro BriefSpecial edition:2026 outlook and Top 10 macro trendsDecember 16,2025Executive summary 2026 economic outlook Top 10 macro trends for companies050817ContentsAbout this documentThe monthly brief is intended to inform executive teams,boards and investors on the state o

2、f the economy.It has been prepared based on data as of December 10,2025.Each brief includes a summary of global business-relevant macroeconomic developments,and a set of indicators that track the overall health of the economy,business activity and consumers.See our recent monthly macro briefs:Octobe

3、r:Navigating two-speed economiesSeptember:Tariff updateJuly:Fiscal power playsJune:Immigration at a crossroadsMay:Consumer spending in fluxFor more information about Macro Foresight, our latest point of views:Chris TomsovicGlobal LeadMacro ForesightLondon,UKNick KojucharovAmericas LeadMacro Foresigh

4、tSan Francisco,USA“2025 was a tumultuous year,marked by uncharacteristically high economic and policy uncertainty,geopolitical tensions,and rapid technological change.Most executives and boardrooms were consumed by uncertainty around the shift in US trade policies and the escalation of US-China tens

5、ions.The rapid acceleration in AI capex investments was another key feature of the landscape,contributing to economic resilience and propelling equity markets.As we pivot to 2026,some of the policy uncertainty will subside but the lagged impacts of the decisions taken in 2025 will only intensify.Com

6、panies should plan for modest,albeit uneven,economic growth and a still-challenged business environment.Growth will increasingly diverge between AI“winners”and“losers”,while trade policy will continue to recalibrate value chains.In addition,we expect to see further competitive pressures globally fro