Lazard：2026年全球经济展望报告（英文版）（21页）.pdf

1、Global Outlook 2026Ronald Temple,CFAChief Market StrategistGlobal Outlook 20262Crosscurrents buffeted investors in 2025.On the downside,protectionist US trade policy,more restrictive immigration policies,and persistent geopolitical tension represented new shocks to supply chains that were still heal

2、ing from the aftereffects of the pandemic.On the upside,enthusiasm about the potential speed and scale of the productivity and corporate profitability impact of artificial intelligence(AI)lifted investor confidence and drove markets to new heights.But in 2026,gravity is likely to reassert itself.Uni

3、ted States:Elevated tariffs may lift inflation through the first half of 2026 while tighter immigration enforcement reduces labor supply and GDP growth.AI investment is surging,but rising debt-funded spending with no clear path to profitability should raise yellow flags.China:The new Five-Year Plan

4、prioritizes stability over near-term growth,focusing on high-tech sectors and reducing US dependencies.Chinas housing crisis will continue to exacerbate economic imbalances,with limited expected fiscal stimulus.Eurozone:Low interest rates and energy prices,rising real wages,and continued fiscal expa

5、nsion support growth in 2026.Risks include uncertainty around defense spending,political fragility,and countries willingness to implement economic reforms.Japan:Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will pursue an expansionary fiscal and regulatory agenda reminiscent of Abenomics.But the Bank of Japans(BoJ)

6、inclination to tighten monetary policy given domestic inflationary pressures will pose a new tension that her mentor did not encounter.Global Markets:US exceptionalism may fade as non-US opportunities continue to outperformaided by a weaker US dollar.There is little doubt that AI will boost producti