KKR ：2026年全球宏观经济趋势与投资策略展望报告：提质升级（英文版）（87页）.pdf

1、Global Macro Trends December 202515.4InsightsHigh GradingOutlook for 2026 Contents 3 Introduction 8 High Grading the Portfolio 11 Managing a Changing Risk Environment 14 Whats Changed in Our Thinking 15 Section I:Key Themes/Asset Allocation 15 Corporate Reform:Capital Heavy to Capital Light 16 Produ

2、ctivity/Worker Retraining 17 Consumption Upgrades in EMs 18 The Security of Everything 19 Intra-Asia Trade 20 Global Services as an Investment Theme 22 Picks and Pans 27 Section II:Global/Regional Economic Forecasts 29 U.S.38 Euro Area 44 China 51 Japan 55 Section III:Capital Markets 55 S&P 500 61 U

3、.S.Interest Rates 65 Euro Area Interest Rates 66 Japan Interest Rates 67 Oil/Natural Gas 71 U.S.Dollar 74 Japanese Yen 75 Section IV:Most Asked Questions 75 How are you thinking about Expected Returns?79 How are you thinking about Relative Value in Credit?82 How should I think about productivity and

4、 worker retraining in the age of AI?85 Section V:ConclusionHenry H.McVeyHead of Global Macro&Asset Allocation,CIO of KKR Balance S David McNellis Aidan Corcoran Changchun Hua Kristopher Novell Brian Leung Rebecca Ramsey Tony Buckley Richard Bullock Christian Olinger Bola Okunade Rachel Li Thibaud Mo

5、nmirel Yifan Zhao Ezra Max Asim Ali Patrycja Koszykowska Coco Qu Miguel Montoya Koontze Jang Allen Liu Alexandre Caduc Wayne Shen Lucy Siegel Insights|Volume 15.4 3High GradingOutlook for 2026The background for the global economy remains favorable heading into 2026,but we are now later in the credit

6、 cycle and more of the productivity miracle is now being properly reflected in capital market assumptions,we believe.In our view,this backdrop argues not for de-risking,but for High Grading,or upgrading portfolios,capital structures,and counterparties to emphasize resilience,quality,and capital effi