先锋集团：2026年全球经济和市场展望报告：AI非理性繁荣：经济上行 股市下行（英文版）（28页）.pdf

1、Vanguard research December 2025Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2026AI exuberance:Economic upside,stock market downsideRapid evolution has increased AIs potential to become a transformative economic force,with promising implications for productivity across industries.Adoption is accelerating

2、,and while todays AI leaders dominate headlines,tomorrows winners may look very different.The outlook for markets is nuanced.Higher growth is on the horizonOn the back of AI capital investment and a potential productivity surge,the U.S.economy could eventually grow by 3%.Solid growth and still-stick

3、y inflation will leave the Federal Reserve with limited room to cut rates below our 3.5%estimate of the neutral rate,which would neither promote nor restrict economic activity.Page 3.Equity markets may remain exuberant but face rising risksIn the near term,growth-and tech-heavy U.S.equities could co

4、ntinue to play an outsized role in shaping sentiment across global capital markets.However,U.S.-based AI scalers track record of growing earnings year after year will come under renewed scrutiny as they embark on unprecedented AI capital investment.Page 10.We favor fixed income and value stocksWe ma

5、intain our view that high-quality bonds offer compelling real returns.From a risk-return perspective,both U.S.value-oriented and non-U.S.developed markets equities provide more attractive prospects than U.S.growth equities,especially if AI transforms the economy.These asset classes should benefit mo

6、st over time as AIs boost to productivity broadens to consumers of the technology.Page 15.Contents3Global outlook summary5Our outlook for AI 15Market and portfolio outlook 20Regional economic outlooksVanguards 2026 economic forecastsCountry/regionGrowthCore inflationUnemployment ratePolicy rate(year