SESSION-3-DR-PHOCAS-Financial-Upheaval_From-Sanctions-to-Tariffs_AIO_Harare-2025.pptx

1、,Theme:“Growth for the African Reinsurance IndustryNavigating Global Volatility and Growing Risk Complexity”,By Dr.Phocas NYANDWI Regional Director,Africa Re,Nairobi Regional Office,at the AIOs 29th African Reinsurance Forum in Harare,Presentation TopicFinancial Upheaval:From Sanctions to Tariffs,Gl

2、obal Financial Upheaval:20202025|Its a VUCA World!,2,Financial Upheaval,War&Geopolitical Risks,US Tariffs/Aid cuts,Rise of Protectionism,Sanctions and Economic Sovereignty,Economic Volatility,Inflation,Currency Risks,Energy&and Resource Pressures,Geo-economic Fragmentation&Regionalization,Trade Reor

3、ientation&Supply Chain diversification,Political Violence/Terrorism&SRCC,Volatility,Uncertainty,Complexity,Ambiguity(VUCA)in the African Insurance Industry,Hardly had economies recovered from the effects of Covid-19 and Russia/Ukraine&Ukraine/Gaza war that Tariffs and aid cuts came to add more volat

4、ility and uncertainty in 2025 and beyond.,Global Financial Upheaval:20232025|Sanctions on Selected African countries,3,Sanctions mean restricted trade for/with the sanctioned countriesFor(Re)insurers:Complexity around Compliance Screenings a Big Headache for(Re)insurers in Africa,Financial Upheaval

5、in Africa|FX RiskVolatility of African Currencies,4,Nigeria,Egypt,Ghana,Ethiopia,Malawi,70%+loss since mid2023 FX reforms;trend to stabilization following significant volatility,66%loss since early 2022 after staged devaluations and 2024 float,50%plunge in 2022;recurrent volatility despite 2025 rall

6、y,Float on Jul 29 2024 led to an immediate 30%drop,then further weakness 30%in following days/weeks Reinsurers USD production and ETB Cash holdings impacted.,Two-step devaluations(25%in 2022;30%in 2023)Increase in the cost of claims/social inflation.,Impacts,FX mismatch Credit risk,Claims inflation&