主题演讲 _ 期待您的GenAI宝宝时会发生什么.pdf

1、sounilyu$whoaimlDunningKruger EffectConfidenceCompetencePeak of“Mount Stupid”Slope of EnlightenmentPlateau of SustainabilityValley of DespairKnow nothingGuruHighLowPEOPLE BECOMING EXPERTS IN AIsounilyuUnderstanding the World Through Mental ModelsConceptionDunning KrugersounilyusounilyuUnderstanding

2、the World Through Mental ModelsConceptionsounilyuCynefin FrameworkOODA LoopDunning KrugerSystems 1 vs 2sounilyuTwo CaveatsConceptionGeorge E.P.BoxAll models are wrong.but some are usefulDaniel KahnemanTheory induced blindness:Once you have accepted a theory and used it as a tool in your thinking,it

3、is extraordinarily difficult to notice its flawssounilyuNo single model characterizes the worldConception50,000 ft25,000 ft10,000 ft1,000 ftStrategicTacticalsounilyuNo single model characterizes“risk”ConceptionEDRIAMEmailProtectionOperationalMetricsConfigurations50,000 ft25,000 ft10,000 ft1,000 ft“R

4、isk”StrategicTacticalBoD/QBRSMEssounilyuThe Prayer of Many ParentsFirst TrimesterGOD,Serenitygrant me theI cannot CHANGE;Courageto know the DIFFERENCE.Wisdomandthe things I can;to accept the thingsto CHANGEsounilyuWhat Risk Practitioners Should Also Be PrayingFirst Trimesterto accept the thingsI can

5、not CHANGE;Courageto know the DIFFERENCE.Wisdomandthe things I can;to CHANGErisk mitigaterisksGOD,Serenitygrant me thesounilyuThe Cycle of Life:Cynefin ModelFirst TrimesterUnknown unknowns.Cause&effect knowable only in retrospect and may not be repeatable.Known unknowns.Cause&effect knowable by expe

6、rts and are repeatable.Known knowns.No special expertise required.Unknowable unknowns.Extremely volatile and urgent situation.Approach:run multiple experiments.Inspect and adapt to discover Emergent Practices.Approach:take swift and decisive action;apply Novel Practices.Approach:apply the acceptedBe