理特咨询：2026年及未来波兰能源展望报告：在绿色转型加速中保障稳定（英文版）（36页）.pdf

1、P OL AND ENERGY OUTLOOK,2026&BE YONDSecuring stability as the green transition accelerates2025We would like to acknowledge all those who contributed in the review of this report,especially:Bartosz Kowal,Jakub Bdek,Wiktor Jankowski,and Jakub Klicki.WOJCIECH WIERCZPartner,Growth WarsawGRZEGORZ KACZORP

2、artner,Energy,Utilities&Resources WarsawMIKOAJ MATUSZKOPrincipal,Growth WarsawKAMIL MOSKWIKSenior Advisor WarsawPIOTR WIEKConsultant,Growth WarsawCONTENTEXECUTIVE SUMMARY 31.POLISH POWER MIX EVOLUTION 62.NATURAL GAS AS CRITICAL TRANSITION FUEL 143.NUCLEAR POWER AS A LONG-TERM STABILITY GUARANTEE 204

3、.FINANCING THE ENERGY TRANSITION 26CONCLUSION WHY AFFORDABLE&RELIABLE ENERGY MUST COME FIRST 302Poland stands at a critical juncture in its energy transition,driven by the urgent need to replace coal-dependent generation while meeting rapidly growing electricity demand.The 2022 energy crisis,which s

4、aw Polish electricity prices peak at 270/MWh,starkly illustrated the economic risks of relying on carbon-intensive energy sources,as EU carbon prices continue their upward trajectory toward 130/t CO2 by 2030.The country faces an unprecedented electrification wave,with net electricity consumption pro

5、jected to surge from 154 terawatt hours(TWh)in 2024 to 210-230 TWh by 2040 a 1.9%-2.5%annual growth rate driven primarily by transport electrification,heat pump adoption,industrial automation,and digital infrastructure expansion.This fundamentally reshapes Polands energy requirements and underscores

6、 the inadequacy of the current coal-dominated mix,which makes Polands electricity system the EUs most carbon-intensive,at 666 grams carbon dioxide equivalent(CO2e)/kWh.STRATEGIC PATHWAYS&GENERATION MIXAs described in this report,Polands energy future centers on three potential scenarios with differe