【国泰期货】Morning Insight: December 9, 2025-251209（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:December 9,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Glass:The trend remains weak.The main pressures in the market currently come from two aspects.First,forward-market premiums are r

2、elatively large.Second,the production-cut factor that had been repeatedly traded earlier has not seen further progress recently.Since the market is now in the period when major funds shift their positions from the JAN 01 contract to the MAY 05 contractand the MAY 05 contract carries a large premiumt

3、he markets pricing is paying less attention to spot-market fluctuations and is instead focusing more on the high valuation of the forward contract.Regarding production cuts,although the trend toward reduced glass-industry output by 2026 is clear,the true deadline that would force meaningful cuts is

4、still relatively far away.As a result,the actual pace of production cuts has been slow.Over the past three months,under market pressure and policy influence,actual operating capacity in the glass industry has only declined by 3.7%.Even with production-cut support,glass manufacturers inventories in e

5、arly December remained 23%higher year-on-year.In summary,due to large forward premiums and production cuts falling short of expectations,glass prices remain weak.However,it is worth noting that basis and calendar spreads have strengthened recently,and spot transactions are stable.The core driver for

6、 the bears is still the high valuation of forward contracts.As prices approach multi-year lows,caution is needed when chasing shorts at low levels.December December 9 9,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Coal:Weak demand realities an