泰国大城银行研究中心：2026年全球经济展望报告（英文版）（37页）.pdf

1、Krungsri ResearchEconomicOutlook 2026December 2025Krungsri Research2Global:Between light and shadowChinaKey growth engines are losing steam,and external headwinds remain strong.Without substantial stimulus measures,the economy could further lose momentum.Oversupply and real estate slump cast a long

2、shadow and could take time to ease despite rescue efforts.Policy space exists,but debt concerns may constrain bolder actions.U.S.Moderate growth ahead amid mixed cyclical signals.Labor slowdown clouds outlook as multiple factors limit further monetary easing.Converging economic risksincluding politi

3、cal uncertainty,tariff effects,and the AI boomcreate a complex dilemma for the Fed.Europe Recovery to continue with modest growth in 2026 thanks to fiscal supports and the expanding service sector.Stabilized tariff impacts amid 2%inflation may allow the ECB to pause its easing cycle.JapanShows poten

4、tial for recovery,supported by proactive fiscal stimulus and strong service activities,yet weak manufacturing and slower global demand will cap momentum.BOJ signals a cautious normalization path for 2026 as inflation remains above the target of 2%.Krungsri Research3Dim global growth prospects:The IM

5、F projects a slowdown in 2026,with risks skewed to the downside amid fading front-loading,prolonged uncertainty,and rising protectionism.Notes:EMs:Emerging and Developing AsiaSource:IMF,World Economic Outlook(October 2025)3.32.80.95.00.15.34.62.53.22.01.24.81.15.24.22.03.12.11.14.20.64.74.11.6202420

6、25F2026FIMFs Economic Growth Projections in 2025-2026EMsASEAN-53.03.01.91.92.02.01.01.00.70.70.50.55.15.14.14.11.71.7Previous forecast1.21.2Krungsri Research4Global activity is expanding modestly,led by services,but tariff pressures may increasingly weigh on trade and manufacturing despite policy su