1、2026 US VENTURE CAPITAL OUTLOOK1Institutional Research GroupKyle Stanford,CAIA Director of Research,US Venture Emily Zheng Senior Research Analyst,Venture Capital Kaidi Gao Senior Research Analyst,Venture Capital Susan Hu Quantitative Research Analyst Published on December 1,20252026 US Venture Capi

2、tal OutlookOur analysts outlook on the venture market in 2026PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive,most accurate,and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets.2026 outlooks4 The early stages of the market will see a surge in deal activity

3、.9 Later-stage deal activity will remain strong.13 Liquidity will return,though recovery will remain uneven.16 Fundraising has bottomed out,and a gradual rebound awaits as distributions and LP sentiment improve.2026 US VENTURE CAPITAL OUTLOOK2IntroductionOptimism in the US venture market heading int

4、o 2026 may not differ much from that at the start of 2025.Public markets had been trading at or near all-time highs,liquidity is still a major concern for venture capital,and further rate cuts are expected as the new year begins.Meanwhile,geopolitical tensions continue,though their impact on markets

5、 has somewhat lessened,and inflation is back to where it was a year ago.US GDP growth has returned to an annualized rate of 3.8%(as of Q2),aligning with the 3.6%rate from a year prior.What is different is that the Trump administration has had nearly a year to implement its policies,reducing the chan

6、ces of legislative surprises in 2026.Now,the likelihood of rapid regulatory change in the market is low,contrasting sharply with last year when the changing administrations raised hopes of an M&A rebound and a more relaxed regulatory environment.Overall,we maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook fo