韩国央行：2025韩国经济展望报告（8月版）（英文版）（58页）.pdf

1、 This report is the English version of the“Korea Economic Outlook”published on September 5,2025.Please contact the Research Department at the email address below if you have any questions regarding the contents or would like to request permission in advance for reproducing or copying the contents of

2、 this report for commercial purposes.Please credit the source when quoting,reproducing,or copying the contents of this report for non-commercial purposes.Research Department,Business Cycle Team,Bank of Korea econtrendbok.or.kr ii Contents Executive Summary Macroeconomic Conditions and Outlook 1.Dome

3、stic and International Economic Conditions Global Economy Koreas Economy Main Premises of the Baseline Outlook 2.Macroeconomic Outlook for Korea Economic Growth Current Account Prices Employment 3.Risk Assessment Key Risks to the Outlook Distribution of Growth Projections by Market Participants Scen

4、ario Analysis 1 1 14 20 21 21 29 31 33 39 39 39 40 Why does the Impact of Tariffs on U.S.Prices Emerge Slowly?Status and Prospects of The Taiwanese Economy Following U.S.Tariff Impositions Current Domestic Labor Market Status:Spider Chart Analysis 4 9 36 Box Quarterly Forecasts for the One-Year-Ahea

5、d Horizon 42 i Executive Summary GDP growth in 2025 is projected at 0.9%,slightly above the May forecast of 0.8%.The upward revision reflects clear signs of improvements in consumption and solid export performance,despite weaker-than-expected construction investment.CPI inflation is expected to stan

6、d at 2.0%in 2025,up from 1.9%in the May forecast,as adverse weather conditions drive up prices of agricultural and marine products,more than offsetting the decline in global oil prices.(%,%p)2024 2025e)1)2026e)1)GDP growth rate 2.0 0.9(+0.1)1.6(-)Headline inflation(%)2.3 2.0(+0.1)1.9(+0.1)(Core infl