1、Forecasting global demand for novel TBvaccines:scenarios for early planningand needs assessmentOctober 2025 1 Forecasting global demand for novel TB vaccines October 2025 Executive summary Tuberculosis(TB)remains the leading infectious disease worldwide,causing 10.8 million cases and 1.3 million dea

2、ths in 2023,with 90%of the burden concentrated in low-and middle-income countries.While current prevention tools are inadequate to effectively eliminate TB,novel TB vaccines for adolescents and adults are currently in advanced clinical trials with early modelling suggesting that such vaccines could

3、significantly reduce TB incidence and mortality.Following the Gavi Boards 2024 in principle approval to support novel TB vaccines to inform early market shaping and planning efforts,Gavi,the Vaccine Alliance(Gavi),Clinton Health Access Initiative,Inc.(CHAI)and MMGH Consulting(MMGH)developed a global

4、,supply-unconstrained demand forecast for 20302040,building on the World Health Organization(WHO)s MI4A methodology and consultations with more than 120 stakeholders across nine high-TB burden countries.The forecast quantifies potential adolescent and adult vaccination needs under four scenarios max

5、imum public health need,high,medium and low reflecting varying levels of programmatic ambition,as a function of potential financing,acceptability of vaccines,and programmatic feasibility and readiness.The WHO TB Vaccine Accelerator Finance and Access Working Group reached consensus that the high-dem

6、and scenario best balances health impact and feasibility.This scenario also aligns with country ambition expressed during consultations,assuming product characteristics align with the WHO Preferred Product Characteristics(PPC),and the availability of funding and affordable prices.This approach combi