毕马威：2025年第四季度中国经济观察报告（英文版）（21页）.pdf

1、China EconomicMonitorIssue:2025 Q4November 2025 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau(SAR)partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong(SAR)partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of i

2、ndependent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.2Key takeawaysIn the first three quarters of 2025,Chinas real GDP grew by 5.2%year-on-year(YoY),0.4 percentage points higher than for the same period last year,indica

3、ting solid progress toward the full-year growth target of around 5%.However,on a quarterly basis,economic momentum softened in Q3.As policy priorities shifted towards addressing involutionary competition,earlier demand-boosting measures moderated.Real GDP growth slowed to 4.8%in Q3,down 0.4 percenta

4、ge points from Q2,and the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter pace dropped to one of the lowest levels on record.In terms of consumption,total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 4.5%YoY in the first three quarters,0.5 percentage points slower than in H1.Retail sales growth eased significantly

5、 to 3.5%in Q3,a 1.9-percentage-point slowdown from Q2,primarily due to diminished effects from the trade-in programme,combined with slowing household income growth and insufficient consumer confidence.Housing sales remained weak in Q3,continuing to constrain developers willingness to invest.Real est

6、ate investment contracted further from 12.1%in Q2 to 19.2%in Q3,remaining the largest drag on fixed asset investment growth.Local governments,constrained by the need to ensure basic public services and manage risks,slowed the pace of infrastructure investment.Infrastructure investment growth fell sh