【招银国际】China Economy: Broad-based weakening PMI reflected economic moderation-251103（5页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 3 Nov 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Macro Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy Economic Perspectives-Broad-based weakening PMI reflected economic stal

2、l Broad-based weakening PMI reflected economic moderation China PMI recorded its weakest October reading since 2008,reflecting a further slowdown in economic activity in 4Q25.Trade pressure mounted as both export and import order indices dropped to recent lows,while production and new order indices

3、further contracted.Corporates procurement and orders on hand declined as demand softened.Non-manufacturing PMI inched up as service improved while construction extended its weakness.The broad-based weakening in PMI pointed to growth pressure in 4Q25 given the much higher base last year,which may pro

4、mpt continued policy easing.We expect the central bank to further cut the RRR and LPR in Nov/Dec by 50bps and 10bps.The Ministry of Finance may also need to introduce additional fiscal stimulus measures,including accelerated fiscal spending and an early front-loading of the 2026 debt quota,to suppor

5、t households,consumption,and the property sector.Manufacturing PMI contracted to recent low as trade pressure mounted.Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49%in Oct from 49.8%,missing market expectations at 50%.Both export and import order indices dropped to new lows at 45.9%and 46.8%since reciprocal tariff

6、s in Apr,as export front-loading lost momentum.Production index slid into contraction at 49.7%from 51.9%,while new order index declined to 48.8%from 49.7%,both marking a new low since Dec 2023.The anti-involution policy continued to drive reflation,yet more mildly,in upstream sectors,as raw material