冯棣生-镍业世界趋势演变、风险与未来之路1020-终稿 - 脱敏.pdf

1、 SMM.All rights reserved.不断发展的镍业：趋势、风险和未来之路The Evolving Nickel World:Trends,Risks,and the Road Ahead冯棣生2025.10 中国 厦门 SMM.All rights reserved.SMM.All rights reserved.核心内容 Main Content镍矿：红土矿占主导，硫化矿份额持续萎缩Mining:Saprolite Dominates as Sulfide Share Shrinks中间品：MHP驱动中间品产能和产量持续增加Intermediate:Rapid Expansio

2、n of Intermediate Products,Driven by MHP原生镍：镍生铁产业向印尼转移；硫酸镍保持紧平衡；电解镍产量稳步增长Primary&Chemical:NPI Shifts to Indonesia;NiSO4 maintains S/D balance;Refined Nickel Sees Steady Growth下游：不锈钢占需求主导地位，合金与电镀市场份额稳定Downstream:Stainless Steel Dominates、Alloy&Plating maintain stable market sharePage 3 SMM.All rights

3、 reserved.Source:Data processed by SMM based on model印尼红土镍矿占据供应主导地位，全球硫化镍矿供应占比持续下降Indonesias Laterite Nickel Dominance:Sustained Market Share Expansion while the decrease of Global Sulfide Reserve2018-2030E 全球镍产量主要流向 矿山开采硫化物红土湿法冶金 Hydrometallurgy 火法冶金MHP镍生铁、FeNi、高冰镍产品世界镍矿产量份额 World Nickel Ore Produc

4、tion Share(%)主要来源：ID对比PH对比其他Main Sources:ID vs PH vs Others冶炼火法冶金 Pyrometallurgy 电解镍010203040506070809010020182019202020212022202320242025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030ELimoniteSaprolite产品01020304050607080901002018201920202021202220232024 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E其他印度尼西亚菲律宾冶炼LimoniteSaprol

5、iteSulfidePage 4 SMM.All rights reserved.印尼主导新建镍中间品项目成本优势推动MHP市占率提升Indonesia Dominates New Intermediate Nickel Projects Cost Advantage Drives MHP Market Share Growth20212022202320242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E印度尼西亚的MHP其他国家的MHP单位：1000镍吨/Unit：1,000 Ni ton2021 2030E 年全球 MHP 供应预测 Forecasting of Global

6、 MHP Supply 2021-2030E20212022202320242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E印度尼西亚冰镍印度尼西亚高冰镍供应预测 2021-2030 年 Forecasting of Indonesian Nickel Matte Supply 2021-2030E 印尼MHP产量的持续增长是中间品产量增长的主要驱动力The continuous increase in output from Indonesias MHP brought the most significant growth rate.20212030E6%86%94%14%+=