联博：2025年第四季度全球资本市场展望报告：“走钢丝”危局求衡（英文版）（59页）.pdf

1、Capital Markets OutlookKicking the Can Down the TightropeFourth Quarter 2025The information herein reflects prevailing market conditions and our judgments,which are subject to change,as of the date of this document.In preparing this document,we have relied upon and assumed,without independent verifi

2、cation,the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources.Opinions and estimates may be changed without notice and involve a number of assumptions that may not prove valid.There is no guarantee that any forecasts or opinions in this material will be realized.Information s

3、hould not be construed as investment advice.May Lose ValueAre Not FDIC InsuredAre Not Bank GuaranteedInvestment Products Offered:4Q25 Capital Markets Outlook2Current analysis does not guarantee future results.1H:first half;2H:second halfSource:ABTimeline of ABs Capital Markets Outlook Themes1Q:23“Th

4、e Devil Is in the Details”Identified the underlying macro picture as slowly improving,even though the headline numbers through 2022 appeared worrying2Q:23“Season of the Known Unknowns”Emphasized the sudden uncertainties created by the regional banking crisis as likely being nonsystemic3Q:23“Resoluti

5、on,Resistance and Normalization”Summarized the expectation of a resolution to the known unknowns in 1H:23,resistance in 2H:23 and normalization in 20244Q:23“Finding the Path of Least Resistance”Acknowledged the likely brevity of the resistance phase in markets1Q:24“What to Expect When Youre Expectin

6、g Normalization”as the economy was quickly expected to emerge into the normalization phase2Q:24“At the Intersection of Hope and Fear”Identified the underlying macro picture as improving,even though the headline numbers during 1Q:24 appeared worrying3Q:24“Distinguishing Signal from Noise”Recognized t