【国泰期货】Morning Insight: October 16, 2025-251016（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:October 16,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Ferrous sector:Peak season demand remains weak;attention on the production rhythm of electric furnaces.Long-term bottom already i

2、n place:1.The“anti-involution”policy implies potential production cuts for coking coal,and reduced raw material supply could help reverse the oversupply situation in the ferrous sector.2.A soft-landing scenario and interest rate cuts would drive restocking in the manufacturing sector and boost China

3、s industrial product exports.3.Manufacturing and infrastructure investment have declined somewhat under the influence of“anti-involution.”To ensure GDP targets are met and avoid falling into a deflationary spiral,demand-side stimulus will need to strengthen again policy attention should focus on the

4、 Fourth Plenary Session and the blueprint of the 15th Five-Year Plan.In terms of timing:demand during the supposed peak season has been underwhelming.From a balance-sheet perspective,maintaining inventory stability can only be achieved through reduced supply,the necessary condition for which is fall

5、ing prices and compressed margins.Scrap steel used by electric furnaces is a high-cost iron source and represents the marginal supply;thus,attention should be paid to the production cut rhythm of electric furnaces across the industry chain.Copper:Short-term disruptions,but in the long-term theres st

6、ill bullish allocation value.October 1October 16 6,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Trade-related news continues to disturb the market,and there are concerns that high prices in the U.S.may weigh on consumption,putting pressure on