麦肯锡（McKinsey）：2025年全球能源展望报告（英文版）（42页）.pdf

1、Global Energy Perspective 2025October 2025Geopolitical uncertainty,shifting policies,and increasing demand for power are reshaping the energy landscape.This years report presents our updated view on whats to come in the energy system.Contents Foreword.1Executive summary.2Our scenarios and methodolog

2、y.2The forces shaping energy in 2025.3The 2025 energy outlook .4Looking ahead.4Our scenarios and methodology.5The forces shaping energy in 2025 .9Growing global energy demand.10Sensitivity analysis:What if a global recession comes in 2027?.12Potential changes to GDP.14Sensitivity analysis:What if In

3、dias 2050 GDP per capita matches Chinas current GDP per capita?.15Supply chain bottlenecks.16The 2025 energy outlook .17Projected energy demand.17Expected electrification trends.19Projected fuel demand.23The power mix.26How could global coal demand evolve?.28Whats the cost of complete decarbonizatio

4、n of the power sector?.30About this report.35Contributors.37Additional contributors.38McKinseys Global Energy Perspective 2025This year marks the tenth anniversary of McKinseys Global Energy Perspective,providing opportunities to reflect on the lessons learned over the past decade and to look ahead

5、to the challenges and opportunities of the next one.Throughout the years,we have continually refined our global energy model,incorporating dozens of inputs across sectors and regions.Our goal has been to provide a robust,data-driven fact base for all energy stakeholders as the sector evolves.Two key

6、 forces have consistently shaped our energy outlook:policy and technology.Energy policy sets long-term targets,creates incentives,and sends economic signals at both regional and global levels.The 2015 Paris Agreement continues to be the benchmark for many nations and global stakeholders when setting