安联（Allianz）：2025-2027年全球经济展望报告：10大核心关切问题解析（英文版）（36页）.pdf

1、Allianz Research2 October 2025Economic Outlook 2025-27:10 Top-of-Mind Questions,Answered 2Allianz ResearchContent Page 3-5Executive SummaryPage 8-12Has stagflation transitioned from a looming risk to an undeniable reality?Page 13-14 Can central banks untangle their complex dilemmas?Page 6-7 Who trul

2、y bears the cost of the ongoing trade war?Page 15 Is the USDs dominance facing a new era of uncertainty?Page 16-17How far can fiscal dominance propel long-term interest rates?Page 18-19 Will the EU finally ramp up defense spending in 2026-27?Page 20-23 How are firms navigating the challenge of persi

3、stently high financing costs?Page 24-27Is a capital market bubble on the horizon?Page 28 Which emerging markets are grappling with rising imbalances?Page 30 What political events could steer us toward a downside scenario?2 October 2025 1.Who truly bears the cost of the ongoing trade war?Primarily ex

4、porters for now,but US consumers will also be hit through higher inflation(up by 0.6pp by mid-2026).While global trade routes have shifted,allowing exporters to mitigate the impact,downside risks remain high as sectorial investigations are ongoing and the trade deal with China is still pending.Expor

5、t losses could in theory range from-0.3%of GDP(EU)to-1.3%of GDP(Vietnam)compared to a pre-trade war scenario.The cost for the US is estimated at-0.3%.FDI pledges in the US,if realized,would amount to 6%of US GDP by 2026-2028,and look very costly for source countries.Overall,growth in global trade of

6、 goods and services is expected to slow down to+0.6%in 2026 from+2%in 2025 in volume terms.2.Has stagflation transitioned from a looming risk to an undeniable reality?Yes,but it is stagflation light for now.Inflation remains above target in many advanced economies such as the UK,US and Japan while g