1、USA|ShippingEquity ResearchSeptember 30,2025 OmarNokta*|Equity Analyst1(212)778-8405|JaeyoungMcGarry*|Equity Associate(212)778-8358|EmilyHarkins*|Equity Associate+1(212)778-8584|Containers:Limping into 4Q after volatile up-and-down market for much of 2025Freight rates have fallen below leading-cost

2、operators break-even for the firsttime since late 2023.After strong US growth throughout 2024 and early 2025,driven in part by stockpiling,spot volumes have declined and the resultantcapacity oversupply has impacted other markets which have seen healthiertrade volumes.We adjust our estimates to refl

3、ect a better than expected 3Q,but we lower our 4Q estimates given the very weak start to the earnings period.Though still early,weak spot rates threaten 2026 contract negotiations:Leading-cost lineroperators such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd carry all-in break-even costs of roughly$1,100/teu,butmainlan

4、e spot rate averages are hovering at just over$1,000/feu.This is the lowest since December2023,just before Red Sea diversions began soaking up the global fleets excess capacity.Acrossthe mainlanes,spot rates have averaged$1,600/teu year-to-date,down from$2,500/teu for 2024and compares to 2023s$950/t

5、eu figure.Negotiations for 2026 Europe contracts are due to start inthe coming weeks and there is risk for a material adjustment lower.Operators secured 2025 Asia-Europe contracts last year at around$1,500/teu to$1,600/teu,up 30-35%from 2024.The Asia-Europe spot rate has averaged just above these co

6、ntract levels so far in 2025 but has fallen to below$1,250/teu recently.At this time last year operators were negotiating from a position of strengthwith spot rates at$2,000/teu and averages for 2024 to that point of$3,250/teu.Expecting cautious management commentary ahead:We expect companies to car