1、Photo by Margo Stahl Kearney,New YorkUnsteady groundGlobal Economic Outlook 20252027:2H 2025 Kearney ForesightGlobal Business Policy CouncilPhoto by Stanislav Matuszny Kearney,PragueOur update reflects persistent downside risks alongside mounting complexities,fueled by economic policy uncertainty,ge

2、opolitical volatility,and rapid advances in artificial intelligence.ForewordWe titled our 1H 2025 Global Economic Outlook Uncharted territory,a reflection of the mounting economic volatility evident across a range of dimensions.Released shortly after the US tariff announcements on April 2,the report

3、 highlighted key factors likely to disproportionately shape the three-year economic outlook,including geopolitical risk,the proliferation of industrial policy and the use of tariffs,a weakening of domestic and international institutions,technological disruption,and environmental degradation.The past

4、 six months have proven eventful in each of these areas,from geopolitical flashpoints in the Middle East to rapid advances in artificial intelligence,from surging(and often contested)tariffs to growing supply chain resilience capabilities.The net effects of these developments paint a complex picture

5、.While global output growth remains well below our January projections,numbers have ticked upward since our 1H release in April.Investments in AI,stockpiling of imported goods in anticipation of tariff implementation,and the strong performances of select economies have partially offset some downward

6、 pressures.Our 2H report offers an overview of the refreshed global economic data through 2027 and looks at the trends underpinning changes to the foundations of the macroeconomy.This includes an assessment of significant changes to economic policy,a look at emerging complications related to geoecon