牛津经济研究院 ：2025临界点：欧洲化工行业就业与增长面临的威胁研究报告（英文版）（9页）.pdf

1、TIPPING POINT:THREATS TO JOBS AND GROWTH IN EUROPES CHEMICAL SECTOROCTOBER 2025A REPORT FOR INEOS BY OXFORD ECONOMICS Between 2019 and 2025Q2,the European chemical sectors output declined significantly.It has contracted by 30%in the UK,18%in Germany,12%in France,and 7%in Belgium.Output levels have b

2、een hit by reduced price competitiveness due to higher gas and electricity prices than elsewhere,higher environmental and other regulatory costs,and excess global capacity,largely driven by China.The decline in output levels has led to many firms to close plants which has led to job losses.Annual ac

3、counting data show that between 2019 and 2024,household names like BASF,have cut their European employment by 8%meaning a loss of more than 5,000 jobs while Borealis have cut their European employment by 15%with a further loss of one thousand jobs.1,2 The polymer segment of the chemical industry is

4、under particular threat with 40%of EU ethylene capacity facing the threat of closure.Closures are causing thousands of job losses and will lead to substantial knock-on impacts for the wider chemicals industry.Once closed,sites will not reopen due to the high capital costs required.Structural pressur

5、eschiefly high energy and carbon costs alongside regulatory and permitting burdensare undermining the sectors viability.Falling output levels and lower profitability is As the continents fourth largest industrial sector,the chemical sector is an integral part of the European economy.Prior to the Cov

6、id-19 pandemic in 2019,the sector contributed 165 billion of gross value added to the economy and employed 1.2 million people in Europe(i.e.EU27+UK).Over half of European employment in the sector is situated in Germany(396,000),France(212,000),and the UK(105,000).3 causing European chemical firms to