【国泰期货】Morning Insight: September 25, 2025-250925（10页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:September 25,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Glass:The trend may be tilted to the upside.Yesterday,glass futures surged sharply during the session,possibly linked to expect

2、ations of anti-involution policies and the glass industry conference held on the same day.In addition,media reports stated that six ministries jointly issued the“Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Building Materials Industry(20252026),”which sets strict requirements for capacity replacement in

3、the glass sector.Recently,spot glass transactions have been strong,with prices in some regions rising significantly.At present,the core driver of the market remains expectations for future anti-involution policies,and given that central ministries and local governments are in a period of intensive p

4、olicy implementation,these expectations are difficult to disprove in the short term.As a result,the core bearish logicsuch as weak real estate demand and high futures premiumshas been ineffective.The market is still operating within the framework we have repeatedly mentioned:upward moves driven by e

5、xpectations,downward moves driven by deliveries.In short,the short-term trend for glass is tilted to the upside.Container Shipping Index(Europe Route):Short-term volatility may intensify.For week 42,Maersk quoted ShanghaiRotterdam opening freight rates at USD 1,800/FEU(USD 1,870/FEU for some voyages

6、),an increase of USD 400/FEU compared with weeks 4041,which may provide short-term sentiment support for the market.Given that during the National Day holiday most vessels were not significantly underloaded(overall market load factor below September September 2 25 5,2025,2025 F Financial Derivatives