【国泰期货】Morning Insight: September 23, 2025-250923（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:September 23,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Urea:The trend is weak,and within the week the focus is on when price cuts for pre-holiday order-taking will be released in vol

2、ume.From the fundamentals,although exports are accelerating,traders earlier stocking is sufficient,so the price-driving effect is expected to be limited.On the domestic demand side,weak demand is currently the main contradiction.The expected export increase cannot offset weakening domestic demand,wh

3、ile compound fertilizer and industrial demand remain sluggish,also providing limited price support.Thus,the mid-term trend is under pressure.From a valuation perspective,gas-based producers production costs are temporarily unable to effectively support prices.Therefore,as export policies gradually b

4、ecome clear,ureas lower valuation will gradually probe down to the fixed-bed unit cash cost line of northern factories.Overall,before the National Day holiday there may be repeated rounds of price-cut promotions for order-taking,but the logic of a weak mid-term trend remains unchanged.CBOT Soybeans:

5、Argentina temporarily exempts export tariffs,increasing pressure on U.S.soybean exports.On September 22,the Argentine government announced the temporary suspension of export tariffs on soybeans,soybean oil,soybean meal,corn,and wheat until October 31,with potential export volumes reaching USD 7 bill

6、ion.Affected by this news,U.S.soybean prices fell,with overnight CBOT soybeans down 14.75 cents/bu to 1010.75 cents/bu.Currently,Argentinas soybean export September September 2 23 3,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 tariff is 26%,an