大华银行：2025年第四季度全球展望报告：增长节奏放缓 不确定性加剧（英文版）（60页）.pdf

1、On a slower,uncertain tideQuarterly Global Outlook 4Q 2025Executive SummaryOn a slower,uncertain tideGDP Growth TrajectoryFX,Interest Rate&Commodities ForecastsKey Events In 4Q 2025FX StrategyThe next leg of USD decline is about to commence in line with anticipated Fed rate cut in SepRates StrategyA

2、 Sep Fed rate cut paves the way for a lower-rate environment Commodities StrategyRaising our long term positive gold forecast further to USD 4,000/oz by 3Q26FX TechnicalsCommodities TechnicalsGlossaryGroup Research Team0412131415232849555758CONTENTNew ZealandUnited StatesUnited KingdomOutlook by Eco

3、nomiesClick on the economy to view insightEurozoneAustraliaJapanChinaVietnamSouth KoreaHong KongTaiwanPhilippinesSingaporeIndiaIndonesiaMalaysiaThailand .sg/researchGlobalEcoMktResearchUOBBloomberg:NH UOB Information as of 05 September 2025Research InsightsExplore moreContact usUOB Global Economics&

4、Markets ResearchQuarterly Global Outlook 4Q20254On a slower,uncertain tideA story of two halves:stronger-than-expected 1H but a slower,fragile 2HIn the face of the most significant US tariffs in nearly a century,we were surprised by the resilience of the macro-economy.Based on the GDP data available

5、 across developed economies and Asia so far,the growth outcomes for 2Q25 and by extension,1H25 have generally exceeded expectations.A significant part of this upside likely came from the 90-day tariff pause,which led to a surge in export orders and a ramp-up in manufacturing activity to fulfill thes

6、e“frontloading”demands.At the same time,domestic business activity remained resilient,further supporting the strong performance in the first half.Even the growth in the US outpaced expectations amidst significant volatility due to the outsized swings in contributions of net exports in response to th