【国泰期货】Morning Insight: September 15, 2025-250915（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:September 15,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：MEG:The directional trend may remain weak,with a JAN-MAY reverse spread strategy.Supply pressures are gradually emerging.The tr

2、ial run at Yulong Petrochemicals new integrated unit has proceeded smoothly;Sanjiang Chemical,Yuan Dong Lian,and Zhejiang Petrochemicals Line 1 have slightly increased operating rates,while Sichuan,Hainan,and Fujian United have reduced loads.On the coal-based side,Xinjiang Tianye and Inner Mongolia

3、Jianyuan are under maintenance,while Sinochem,Sichuan Zhengdakai,Anhui Haoyuan,and Shanxi Woneng have increased operating rates.The domestic MEG operating rate stands at 74.9%(+0.8%),with coal-based at 76.7%(+2%).On the polyester side,this weeks operating rate reached 91.6%(+0.3%),with partial incre

4、ases in filament production and Zhongtai short fiber resuming.Later,Tianlongs 20 filament lines are set to restart,but no other restart plans are in place.Polyester load is unlikely to exceed 92%.Last week,filament producers planned a 5%reduction in POY output,but conditions are not yet in place sin

5、ce profits remain too high;instead,POY may shift to FDY production.Polyester operating rates have already peaked,and demand is expected to weaken in Q4.The MEG supply-demand balance sheet remains relatively tight in the near term,but medium-to long-term supply pressures are emerging,suggesting valua

6、tions are biased downward.September September 1 15 5,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Lead:In the short term,tight lead concentrate supply and marginal demand improvement are supporting prices.On the supply side,primary lead output