【国泰期货】Morning Insight: September 11, 2025-250911（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:September 11,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Live Hogs:According to a notice from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,a symposium on live hog capacity regulation

2、enterprises is scheduled for September 16,with 25 industry participants invited to promote the implementation of live hog capacity regulation measures.Based on projections of the live hog production cycle,the policy of reducing sow numbers will be favorable for a turning point in production capacity

3、 to appear in about 10 months,with the July contract potentially reflecting related expectations.However,near-term spot prices continue to hit new lows,and average slaughter weights are turning upward.The fat-standard hog price spread is narrowing counter-seasonally,confirming that effective destock

4、ing has not yet occurred.From September to October,the market will be in a phase where production capacity expansion and destocking cycles overlap.Losses among social farming groups are widening,and the willingness to actively rebuild inventories remains low.Near-month contracts have once again rise

5、n above the lowest delivery location prices,and short-term weakness is unlikely to change.The pattern of weak reality but strong expectations remains,and the strategy of large-scale reverse arbitrage is maintained.Soybean meal:Rebound and consolidation.After the USDAs substantially bullish report in

6、 August,both domestic and international soybean prices fell back,mainly due to“trade-related disturbances.”For U.S.soybeans,although there remain bullish factorssuch as below-average September September 1 11 1,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文