【国泰期货】Morning Insight: September 10, 2025-250910（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:September 10,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Offset Paper:Fundamentals relatively oversupplied,low benchmark price opens space for two-way operations From a fundamentals pe

2、rspective,oversupply is relatively certain:current industry operating rate is around 50%,with over 10%new capacity expected to be added from H2 this year through next year.Demand,under the influence of demographic cycles and national policies,is in a peaking and declining stage,with a high probabili

3、ty of“peak season not strong.”Inventories across the whole raw material supply chain remain high,so price-supporting efforts provide limited boost for cultural paper.From the benchmark price perspective,RMB 4218/ton is lower than expected,leading to a shift in market sentiment.With fundamentals larg

4、ely agreed upon,this opens up room for two-way operations.If the market opens low below RMB 4000/ton,there exist potential bullish themesincluding tendering season and delivery warehouse capacitythat are difficult to falsify in the short term;one may consider buying on dips,but positions should be c

5、losed the same day with strict stop-losses.The RMB 40004400/ton range is relatively reasonable,close to some enterprises production costs,but without much room for shorts to enter and hedge,hence limited participation value.If prices rise above RMB 4400/ton,in the context of weak fundamentals,the hi

6、gh opening would offer hedging levels for the industry while also reflecting partially released optimism;combined with restart developments in leading“anti-September September 1010,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 involution”produc