【国泰期货】Morning Insight: September 8, 2025-250908（10页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:September 8,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Glass:Short-term rebound unlikely to sustain,higher probability of weak oscillations;caution required at lower levels On Friday,

2、glass prices surged sharply,possibly in response to certain macro-industrial information circulating that day.However,no new policy announcements were observed from relevant authorities over the weekend.The core pressure on glass still stems from the weakness of the real estate sector,alongside a su

3、bstantial premium of the main glass futures contract over spot prices.Thus,either significant production cuts on the supply side or a notable recovery in the real estate market would be necessary to truly reverse the current weak trend.At present,no significant changes are visible on the supply side

4、,while the real estate market remains weak,though policy expectations are relatively constructive.Recently,spot transactions in glass have been lukewarm,insufficient to support the elevated futures premium.It is important to note that the bullish thesis has not yet reached its falsification point.On

5、 the one hand,anti-deflation and anti-involution remain overarching themes,and their eventual impact on the glass industry still holds many uncertainties.On the other hand,in each of the past three years,the glass industrys spot market showed sequential improvement in the fourth quarter.Hence,cautio

6、n remains warranted at lower levels going forward.In the medium term,glass is likely to experience a repeatedly oscillating market pattern:upward moves will rely on expectations,while downward moves will be driven by delivery.September September 8 8,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivati