【国泰期货】Morning Insight: September 5, 2025-250905（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:September 5,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Polysilicon:Anti-involution sentiment dominates the market,with a focus on buying on dips.In the short term,the market is tradin

2、g more on expectations of September policy implementation,and the futures show an easy-to-rise,hard-to-fall pattern.From a fundamental perspective,although there are production cuts on the supply side in September,some plants have resumed production to offset supply,so the overall reduction is not s

3、ignificant.On the demand side,wafer production scheduling has slightly increased month-on-month,and supply and demand in September may show a slight inventory accumulation.In addition,from the perspective of downstream restocking,downstream buyers began more evident restocking from late August,and c

4、urrent raw material inventories have reached the level of 23 months,creating a short-term vacuum period for spot procurement.However,overseas export demand at present has supported the rise in downstream quotations,which indicates that polysilicon price increases have gradually been accepted downstr

5、eam,with smooth spot transmission.Looking ahead,the market assigns limited weight to fundamentals and instead trades more on policy expectations.The overall approach remains maintaining a buy-on-dips investment strategy.Ferrous Sector:Raw materials remain firm in the short term,while mid-term pressu

6、res persist September September 5 5,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Raw materials remain firm in the short term:First,during the National Day holiday,northern steel mills and coal mining enterprises implemented significant product