【国泰期货】Morning Insight: September 4, 2025-250904（7页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:September 4,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Caustic soda:Short-selling is not advisable,the market remains in wide fluctuations in the short term.Currently,caustic soda lac

2、ks sufficient drivers,with market expectations in contention,resulting in broad volatility.The main bottlenecks to price increases come from exports and alumina.On the export side,new capacity from Vinythai and high supply from Japan and South Korea have kept Southeast Asia well-supplied,preventing

3、export margins from expanding.Export orders have not improved,and the 50-grade to 32-grade price spread remains weak,leaving caustic soda with insufficient upward momentum.On the alumina side,high output and high inventories have continued to compress margins,and marginal capacity supply may be infl

4、uenced by profitability going forward.Although there are expectations of 3.6 million tons of capacity coming online in Guangxi by the end of this year,and 2 million tons from Dongfang Hope at the start of next year,future alumina stocking will drive the circulation of 50-grade caustic soda domestica

5、lly.However,before stocking begins,it is difficult for the market to see resonance between spot and futures.Overall,at present caustic soda is in an expectations-driven game.Alumina stocking has not yet started,exports have not improved,and upward drivers are lacking,but spot prices also lack downwa

6、rd pressure for now.In terms of valuation,futures are at a discount to spot,and the near-month contracts already price in expectations of 32-grade spot declines and delivery discounts,thus short-selling is not advisable.September September 4 4,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GU