【国泰期货】Morning Insight: August 28, 2025-250828（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:August 28,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Industrial Silicon:Upstream resumption expectations,weak supply and demand.In the short term,market views are divided.Before large

2、-scale resumption of upstream plants,the industrial silicon market tends to follow the movement of coking coal,but from a fundamentals perspective,the overall direction remains biased to the downside.In the short term,there are also speculative expectations in the market regarding“anti-involution”in

3、 industrial silicon and the introduction of supply-side policies,but no substantive documents have yet been seen.From the fundamentals perspective,the resumption pace of Xinjiang plants has been relatively slow due to multiple factors,while on the demand side,polysilicon and organosilicon provide sh

4、ort-term support,and industry inventories have seen a slight weekly build.Looking ahead,upstream plants still face resumption expectations,and production and sales restrictions in the polysilicon segment will also reduce demand.Therefore,in the short term,the recommended trading strategy is to estab

5、lish short positions on rallies,while paying attention to disruptive variables from market information.Methanol:Short-term drivers remain to the downside,look for safety margins,buy on dips in Q4.At present,the core contradiction for methanol is still the mounting pressure from high port inventories

6、 caused by high imports,but the August August 2 28 8,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 market has relatively high expectations for natural gas restrictions in Iran during the winter for the January contract,leading to stronger botto