1、7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on:21/08/2025 07:06:09 GMTDistributed on:21/08/2025 07:06:09 GMT21 August 2025Deutsche Bank GroupResearch Japan Japan Economics Japan Economic Perspectives Date Japan economic outlook:Tariffs,monetary policy,political landscapenThe growth forecast for fisc

2、al 2025 has been revised upward,reflecting the latest GDP figures for 2Q 2025.Specifically,the growth forecast has been increased from 0.6%to 1.0%.However,the forecast for fiscal 2026 has been revised downward,from 1.1%to 0.9%.Our growth forecasts continue to exceed consensus estimates.nAs a result

3、of tariff negotiations with the US,it has been decided that reciprocal tariffs will be raised to 15%,while tariffs on automobiles will be lowered.Although some uncertainties remain,we believe that the potential for the US tariffs to undermine the recovery of the Japanese economy is low.nDespite high

4、 inflation,real private consumption continues to maintain a moderate upward trend,mainly due to the increase in real employee compensation.However,real employee compensation remains below pre-pandemic levels.Japans real wage gap remains negative,and continued wage increases are considered necessary.

5、nAlthough the inflation rate is expected to decelerate moderately,it is unlikely to fall significantly below 2%.Companies pricing stance remains strong,and long-term inflation expectations are also on an upward trend.nThere is uncertainty regarding the scale and content of future economic measures.I

6、n our economic outlook,we assume economic measures similar to those of last year,but this is only a placeholder.Further increases in defense spending sought by the US government are also not reflected in our economic outlook.nThe presence or absence of a Liberal Democratic Party(LDP)presidential ele