硅谷银行（SVB）：2025年下半年全球创新经济展望报告（英文版）（34页）.pdf

1、H2 20253Introduction and Key Takeaways5Perspectives on the Innovation Economy7Macro Factors12Capital:Fundraising and Investment19VC-Backed Tech Benchmarks24AI:Breakthrough or Bubble?29Exits STATE OF THE MARKETS H2 20252As we saw with the dot-com era,early adopters of platform shifts are often not th

2、e market winners.Todays valuations are starting to stretch rationality.It is likely many companies wont achieve high returns,but the best companies could get so big they make up for the failures.”STATE OF THE MARKETS H2 20253Marc CadieuxPresident SVB Commercial B Mark GallagherHead of Investor Cover

3、ageSVB Commercial B Its not your dads venture ecosystem.Venture has evolved since we started our careers.It has gone from a mere cottage industry to a pillar of private markets and technological innovation.In the 80s and 90s,a handful of venture funds small by todays standards located in Boston and

4、on Sand Hill Road were the epicenter of venture.Today VC funds operate from coast to coast and draw on global pools of capital.Funds themselves are more sophisticated,utilize new structures to tap different pools of LP capital,and often blur the lines between venture,private equity(PE)and even priva

5、te debt.And the level of sophistication will only increase as megafund platforms dominate the top end of the VC industry.Amidst this backdrop of long-term evolution there is no shortage of fast-paced changes.Tariffs continue to loom over tech companies selling physical goods and threaten future infl

6、ationary headwinds.Beyond tariffs,changes in Washington are impacting everything from immigration and talent to secondary markets and LP tax regimes.The quickness of these changes are adding a layer of uncertainty and volatility as founders navigate the continued recalibration of the innovation econ