硅谷银行：2025年第三季度经济报告：影响全球市场与商业健康的经济和市场因素（英文版）（30页）.pdf

1、3rd Quarter 2025SVB Asset Management views on economic and market factors affecting global markets and business healthOverviewDomestic EconomyForeign ExchangeCentral Banks and Monetary PolicyCorporate Bond MarketMarkets and PerformanceCautious optimism remained in Q2 2025,although uncertainty about

2、the US policy environment persisted.Tariff policy,monetary policy,inflation and treasury yields were still fluid and difficult to forecast.At his press conference following the June Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC)meeting,Board Chairman Jerome Powell stated that“despite elevated uncertainty,the e

3、conomy is in a solid position.”Ongoing tariff negotiations and heightened geopolitical tensions created market volatility.The Trump administrations tariff deadlines were seen as a critical input to inflation and growth.Core personal consumption expenditures(PCE)the Federal Reserves preferred inflati

4、on indicator rose 2.7%year-over-year(YoY)at the end of May.The Fed stated that it expects inflation to rise in 2025 due to tariffs,but then resume a disinflationary path in 2026.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0725-0104TD-0331263The US Treasury yield curve has been steepening.Although front-end yields ha

5、ve been volatile due to the uncertainty around policy,the yield curve has been normalizing,with short-term yields falling and longer-term yields increasing.The bond market showed resilience and generated positive returns in aggregate in Q2 2025.Bond performance was largely due to the markets reactio

6、ns to tariff negotiations,inflation remaining contained and economic indicators showing ongoing economic strength.Despite tariff-related widening in April,credit spreads tightened modestly amidst improving investor sentiment.The US equity sector was marked by volatility but regained strength during