【国泰期货】Morning Insight: August 22, 2025-250822（10页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:August 22,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：U.S.Soybeans:The sharp rise in soybeans stemmed from a news report and a market rumor.On August 21,Reuters reported that,according

2、 to two informed sources,the Trump administration is expected to rule as early as this Friday on the large number of biofuel law waiver applications filed by small refineries,but will delay a decision on whether to require large refineries to make up part of the waived quotas.Sources said the U.S.En

3、vironmental Protection Agency(EPA)is expected to issue regulations on Friday regarding 195 pending small refinery waiver applications,some of which date back as early as 2016.The ruling will be a“mixed package,”including some rejections,but will not be a complete victory for small refineries.The gov

4、ernment is expected to release a supplementary rule as early as next week to solicit public comment on whether large refineries should be required to make up the waived quotas through a so-called“reallocation”mechanism.This report spurred a sharp rise in soybean oil,which in turn drove soybean price

5、s higher.On August 21,market rumors circulated that China was preparing to free up reserve stocks to purchase U.S.soybeans.As a result,while overseas markets rose,domestic oils and soybean meal prices were noticeably weaker compared with overseas markets.Going forward,domestic oilseed and meal price

6、s are expected to follow a cost-driven logic,moving passively in line with U.S.soybean prices and basis quotations.August August 2 22 2,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Coke and coking coal:After sentiment cooled,the market shifted