【国泰期货】Morning Insight: August 20, 2025-250820（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:August 20,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Urea:In the short term,market sentiment is being driven by news,with speculative activity heating up and prices running relatively

2、 strong yesterday.However,given the weakening of the commodity index in the overnight session and the clear policy pressure weighing on urea prices,the market is expected to gradually enter a high-level consolidation pattern with limited upside.Going forward,the main market focus will be on the prog

3、ress of the China-India negotiations and further developments related to fertilizers,though no firm conclusions have been reached yet.The key point for verifying the situation will be Indian Prime Minister Modis visit to China at the end of August.From a fundamental perspective,domestic demand remai

4、ns weak in the short term.In northern regions,the agricultural top-dressing season has essentially ended,and with demand having been front-loaded this year,the year-on-year growth rate of top-dressing demand has seen a marked decline.In addition,the compound fertilizer industry has recently faced pr

5、essure in selling finished products,limiting its demand for urea as a feedstock.Thus,price support on the demand side mainly relies on export quotas granted by policy.Glass:In the short term,the market remains weak,and medium-term pressure has not yet ended.In last nights session,glass prices fell s

6、harply,mainly due to sluggish demand combined with the approaching delivery month for the September contract.As of the close on August 19,August August 2020,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 glass warehouse receipts stood at 2,438 l