【国泰期货】Morning Insight: August 6, 2025-250806（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:August 6,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Coking coal and coke:Supply contraction expectations are strengthening,and the overall trend remains firm with fluctuations.From a

2、price spread perspective:The basis is trading at a premium.The coking coal SeptemberJanuary(9-1)spread is at-147 yuan/ton,and the coke September spread is at-73.5 yuan/ton.This reflects a typical reverse arbitrage structure where the spot market is weak while expectations for the future are strong.F

3、rom a valuation perspective:Coal prices are influenced by both market dynamics and policy interventions.However,the visible hand of policy typically lags behind the invisible hand of the market.With national and central state-owned enterprises accounting for 86%of the coal industry,it possesses mono

4、polistic traits.Pricing follows a“cost+profit”structure,where profits can vary,making it inappropriate to use valuation alone to determine price inflection points.From a drivers perspective:Production audits in Shanxi continue,and there are new production halts in Shaanxi.However,in Inner Mongolia,s

5、ome previously idled mines(due to losses)are resuming operations,leading to a slow and modest recovery in domestic supply.Imports are maintaining stable clearance and shipment levels.Due to calendar spread arbitrage,coking coal inventories at mines and ports are being rapidly drawn down.This acceler

6、ated transfer of coking coal from upstream to downstream typically correlates with price increases.Meanwhile,supply reduction and production control policies August August 6 6,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 are being frequently i