【国泰期货】Morning Insight: August 8，2025-250808（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:August 8,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Polysilicon:The market remains policy-driven,with attention on sentiment fluctuations.In the short term,price movements are more cl

2、osely tied to capacity acquisition policies.Yesterday,some market participants believed acquisition progress was slower than expected,leading to a pullback.From a supply-demand perspective,weekly upstream inventories increased yesterday,and spot transaction prices for polysilicon have yet to show a

3、significant rise.In the downstream segments of the value chain,such as solar cells and modules,there are signs of price cuts,but the overall downward transmission of prices is not smooth.In the near term,trading logic may remain more influenced by policy news,so attention should be paid to sentiment

4、 swings from market updates today and next week.The broader strategy still leans toward building long positions on pullbacks.Going forward,delivery of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts may gradually increase,which could cap the upside.Opportunities for intermonth reverse spread trades may be wo

5、rth monitoring.With the weekend approaching,investors are advised to control risk and maintain caution in their positions.Caustic Soda:Low valuation,treat peak-season contracts with a bullish bias.The recent decline in caustic soda prices is mainly due to high operating rates among producers combine

6、d with off-season demand.At the same time,August August 8 8,20252025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 exports of 50%caustic soda are stuck in a price bargaining phase,with limited orders,putting further pressure on prices.The price spread be