【国泰期货】Morning Insight: August 13，2025-250813（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:August 13,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Soda ash:A short-term rebound has occurred,but the upside may be limited,and the medium-term correction may not be over.Yesterdays

2、 sharp intraday rebound in soda ash prices may have been linked to various rumors circulating in the market.At present,long positions in soda ash are still mainly trading on policy-related uncertainties,with anti-deflation and anti-involution themes yet to be disproven.After two consecutive weeks of

3、 steep declines,soda ash has become an easy target for policy speculation.From a medium-term perspective,this is not the right window to trade on long-term expectations,as the September contract is approaching delivery and futures prices driven solely by expectations will face greater delivery press

4、ure.As of August 12,the inventory of deliverable warehouse receipts for soda ash reached 9,275 lots,with 1,919 lots of registered warehouse receipts pending,totaling 11,200 lotsequivalent to over 220,000 tonnesand just short of the historical peak of 13,900 lots reached in August 2024.On the spot si

5、de,supply continues to recover,demand remains weak,and producer inventories are increasing.Before the delivery pressure on the September warehouse receipts is resolved and without the actual rollout of supportive policies,it will be difficult for soda ash prices to continue rising on expectations al

6、one,and the medium-term pressure remains unresolved.August August 1 13 3,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Rapeseed Products:Concerns over tightening supply pushed rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures higher.The Ministry of Commer