【国泰期货】Morning Insight: August 11, 2025-250811（7页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:August 11,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Lithium Carbonate:Lithium mine shutdown disrupts supply,price outlook strengthens.According to information from Futures Daily,CATL

2、s Jianxiawo mining area has halted production and will not resume in the short term,with lithium carbonate prices expected to rise significantly.The monthly supply surplus of lithium is projected to narrow substantially,and the proportion of customer-supplied lithium carbonate for downstream compani

3、es may be revised lower.From a timing perspective,until domestic lithium mine inventories are drawn down and imports from transshipment trade via Japan and South Korea,increased shipments from overseas mines,and greater inflows of lithium carbonate and lithium sulfate from Chile and Argentina fill t

4、he gap,lithium carbonate prices are likely to maintain an upward trend.Between July 28 and August 3,2025,Mysteel reported Australian lithium concentrate shipments to China totaling 129,000 tons,an increase of 80,000 tons from the prior week.In July,Chile exported 20,900 tons of lithium carbonate,up

5、43%month-on-month,with 13,600 tons sent to China,up 33%.Considering shipping and logistics timelines,this provides a window for lithium prices to move higher.At the same time,close attention should be paid to the progress of production resumption.Once operations restart,prices will quickly fall back

6、 toward a cost-elevated midpoint.As of last Friday,the SMM long-term contract benchmark price-to-futures basis(September 2025 contract)August August 1111,20252025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 dropped by 7,170 yuan/ton from the previous w