【国泰期货】Morning Insight: August 5, 2025-250805（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:August 5,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Eggs:According to data from Zhuochuang,the number of laying hens in production continued to increase in July,with a steady rise in

2、the supply of smaller eggsevidence of a relatively loose supply of laying hens.Since July,the market has been pricing in the logic of seasonal demand increases ahead of schedule,anticipating large-scale culling of older hens.However,actual spot performance has repeatedly fallen short of expectations

3、.Despite August being the traditional peak season,spot prices fell instead of rising over the weekend.As the nearby-month futures contract entered the delivery month,it dropped sharply,pulling down the pricing of far-month contracts as well.From a fundamental perspective,the combination of high layi

4、ng hen inventory and high stock levels continues to weigh on spot prices.However,the seasonal contracts have already fallen to new all-time lows since their listing.Going forward,attention should be paid to the pace of old hen culling.Overall,short positions should be held with caution.Crude Oil:In

5、the short term,crude oil prices are dominated by pessimistic macro sentiment,while fundamentals are showing signs of marginal improvement.Last Friday,U.S.non-farm payroll data came in significantly below expectations,leading crude oil to decline in tandem with broader asset classes,and the gold-oil

6、ratio surged sharply.In the near term,attention should still be paid to how the market prices in a August August 5 5,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 potential recession in the U.S.and Europe,which could continue to weigh on oil pr