【国泰期货】Morning Insight: July 31，2025-250731（7页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:July 31,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Pulp:Divergence among commodities,trending weak in a choppy manner.Pulp prices quickly retreated from recent highs following the ove

2、rall correction in commodity sentiment.Given its weak fundamentals and lack of speculative drivers,the market is expected to continue a mildly weak and range-bound pattern going forward,and reverse arbitrage strategies may be considered when appropriate.From the downstream perspective,current invent

3、ory levels at end-user enterprises are higher than in the same period in previous years,and there is no inclination to stockpile.This continues to place pressure on the market,as it struggles to absorb high-priced pulp.On July 27,the National Bureau of Statistics released data on profits of industri

4、al enterprises above a designated size for JanuaryJune 2025.The paper and paper products sector posted a total profit of 17.57 billion yuan during this period,down 21.4%year-on-year.This decline persisted throughout the first half of the year,indicating that the industrys profitability is under sign

5、ificant pressure.In addition,the United States has decided to impose a 50%tariff on imports from Brazil,dealing a severe blow to Brazils pulp and paper sector.According to the Brazilian Tree Industry(Ib),Brazil is the worlds largest pulp exporter,shipping an average of 18 million tonnes annually.Chi

6、na is the largest destination for Brazilian pulp exports,accounting for about 30%of total exports,while the U.S.is the second largest market.There are concerns that some pulp originally destined for July July 3131,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必