【国泰期货】Morning Insight: August 12, 2025-250812（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:August 12,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Shanghai Nickel:The logic supporting prices from the mining side has weakened,while constraints on the smelting side limit upside

2、potential,so nickel prices are expected to move within a narrow range.Increased mining quotas are feeding through to ore prices,but the overall decline has been modest,with pyrometallurgical cash costs down by about 2%.Historically,after mid-year quota approvals accelerate,premiums tend to peak and

3、then retreat in the third quarter,reducing the willingness to speculate on nickel ore supply issues.On the news front,the Indonesian government may shorten the RKAB approval cycle from three years to one year and has urged companies to resubmit their 2026 RKAB budgets starting in October 2025.This c

4、ould signal Indonesias intent to exert more flexible control over quotas and influence nickel prices,which raises the risk of short positions at low levels.On the smelting side,global refined nickel visible inventories are steadily increasing,and expectations of low-cost supply growth in the longer

5、term could reshape the cost curve.However,for now,the second-half cost curve is still benchmarked against the pyrometallurgical integrated production path,meaning sharp near-term declines in nickel prices may be difficult,though upside is capped by supply expectations.In the short term,U.S.tariff-re

6、lated disruptions may spur some restocking demand,but the impact appears manageable,with U.S.spot premiums worth watching.In relative valuation terms,inventories in the August August 1 12 2,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 nickel p