【国泰期货】Morning Insight: August 1, 2025-250801（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:August 1,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Soda ash:Caution is advised against shorting in the short term,but the downward trend pressure remains significant.After a period o

2、f continuous price increases,the market has recently seen sharp declines,with volatility intensifying.Its important to note that the market is gradually entering the contract rollover period.The September contract(09)will increasingly see both long and short positions being reduced,and trading volum

3、e will gradually shrink.Against this backdrop,market volatility is expected to narrow,making it difficult for either strong rallies or sharp declines to continue for long.Market enthusiasm around factors such as the anti-involution narrative is starting to cool.Meanwhile,the September contract previ

4、ously traded at a large premium to spot prices,leading a large volume of physical goods to flow into the futures market.As a result,warehouse receipt pressure in the 09 contract will become a key factor in market pricing.To resolve this pressure,either the 09 contract must fall significantly below s

5、pot prices,or the January contract(01)must rise well above 09but neither condition is currently met,so trend pressure remains.On the spot side,supply remains stable,with no major production cuts.In fact,the sharp rise in spot prices in July has encouraged some producers to accelerate their restart o

6、f facilities.Regarding inventories,due to arbitrage between spot and futures,a large amount of physical supply has flowed into the futures market,leading to lower A August 1,2ugust 1,2025025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 inventories at pr