【国泰期货】Morning Insight: July 28, 2025-250728（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:July 28,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Olefins:Urea:Short-Term Pullback,Medium-Term Rangebound In the short term,urea futures are likely to pull back from recent highs as

2、speculative capital exits the market.With large outflows during Friday night trading and a general retreat across major commodity indices,urea prices are expected to follow the broader correction.At the same time,strengthening basis levels suggest improved liquidity in the spot-futures channel,which

3、 may lead to increased selling pressure on the physical side.Over the medium term,urea is expected to enter a rangebound phase.This is supported by two main factors.First,the“anti-involution”policy narrative and supply-side optimization expectations continue to lend valuation support to bulk commodi

4、ties.Second,a potential second batch of urea exports may offer temporary demand-side support.Overall,while the short-term outlook leans bearish with a pullback expected,the medium-term view is neutral with prices likely to fluctuate within a defined range.For today specifically,urea may open lower,a

5、nd intraday price movement will hinge on two key aspects:market-wide speculative sentiment after Fridays sharp correction,and whether spot market transactions pick up after price adjustments.A wide intraday trading range is expected.Coking Coal and Coke:Position Limits May Amplify Volatility July Ju

6、ly 2 28 8,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 The recent strength in coking coal and coke prices is not only driven by forward-looking market expectations but also supported by short-term supply-demand imbalances.From the perspective