【国泰期货】Morning Insight: July 18, 2025-250718（9页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:July 18,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Soybean Meal:Sentiment remains strong,leading to another round of catch-up gains.Since mid-July,domestic soybean meal futures have b

2、ottomed out earlier than U.S.soybeans and have broken through technical resistance levels.The main drivers are:first,a generally strong sentiment across the domestic commodity market,with soybean meal offering a relative value advantage;second,although the fundamentals are temporarily weak(e.g.,U.S.

3、soybeans are under pressure due to trade concerns and favorable weather,and spot soybean meal is soft due to high crushing volumes),there are no new bearish shocks in the short term.As a result,once U.S.soybean prices start to rebounddriven by market hopes of Chinese purchases and a trade agreement

4、supporting exportscost-side support lifts soybean meal futures sharply higher.Technically,there is room for a further rally,with focus on the previous mid-June highs.After this catch-up rally,be cautious of potential pullbacks and monitor whether fundamentals can sustain the trend,including developm

5、ents in trade agreements,U.S.weather conditions,and the August USDA report.Caustic Soda:Still some expectations for the peak season.In the short term,supply and demand in the caustic soda market remain largely unchanged.Supply is ample,and shipments to major downstream sectors are increasing,but the

6、re is currently no clear upward momentum July July 1 18 8,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 in the spot market,resulting in weaker futures performance over the past two days.From a fundamental perspective,July maintenance capacity f