【国泰期货】Morning Insight: July 15, 2025-250715（10页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:July 15,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Lithium Carbonate:Macro-level disruptions have replaced fundamentals as the primary driver.After a sharp surge and subsequent pullba

2、ck,the most active futures contract rose to a high of 68,360 RMB per ton,a gain of 6.6%,before settling at 66,480 RMB per ton.The recent rally was mainly driven by macro policy developments.On July 7,the Yichun Municipal Bureau of Natural Resources issued a notice requiring the submission of verifie

3、d reserve reports by September 30 for eight lithium resource mining rights due to unauthorized transfers,alterations,or registration extensions.The affected projects represent a combined output of approximately 180,000 tons of LCE,accounting for about 10%of global capacity(1.78 million tons),24%of C

4、hinas total capacity including overseas equity projects(760,000 tons),and 92%of Jiangxi Provinces total(195,000 tons).Given the scale of the projects involved,further observation is needed to assess actual implementation.Although the current supply and demand situation remains in surplus and invento

5、ries are building at a faster pace,macro sentiment is heating up.With the concentrated certificate cancellation period approaching,warehousing and delivery constraints may further intensify,leading to increased market volatility.It is advisable to remain cautious and manage position risk carefully.J

6、uly July 1 15 5,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Container Freight Index(Europe Line):Short-term trend remains moderately strong and range-bound;light short positions in the October contract(2510)are recommended,with December 2512,