【国泰期货】Morning Insight: July 23, 2025-250723（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:July 23,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Coking Coal and Coke:Yesterday,the main contracts for both coking coal and coke hit their upper trading limits,primarily driven by a

2、 market reaction to a notice issued by the National Energy Administration.The notice involves inspections of coal mines across eight major production regions.The market speculation centers on whether some coal mines had previously engaged in irrational production planningspecifically,whether their m

3、onthly output exceeded 110%of their approved capacity.However,according to calculations by Mysteel,the level of overproduction in key coal-producing provinces is relatively limited,with only Xinjiang showing signs of exceeding production in June.Therefore,the recent surge in coal and coke futures is

4、 seen more as a result of macro-driven sentiment and policy expectations than of changes in actual supply-demand fundamentals.Since the concept of anti-overcompetition was first mentioned on July 1,and especially following last Fridays document issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Tech

5、nology,expectations around forthcoming supportive policies have continued to build.Frequent policy briefings have further bolstered market confidence.In terms of whats currently driving prices,we believe the hierarchy is:policy-related news behavior in the futures and spot markets actual fundamental

6、s.Given this,we recommend investors remain cautious in participating.July July 2 23 3,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 Polysilicon:With growing expectations for anti-overcompetition policies in the photovoltaic sector,the market ha